Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.761723 23.656927 25.704333 28.091415 30.811923 33.832363 37.462491
2025-11-02 18.635662 21.196120 24.153873 27.865239 32.458770 38.041619 45.474956
2025-11-09 16.565332 19.501947 23.075411 27.833706 34.147912 42.463283 54.654700
2025-11-16 14.976207 18.111328 22.086855 27.643934 35.466965 46.528179 64.274034
2025-11-23 13.738806 16.981254 21.234558 27.428641 36.608714 50.450415 74.644011
2025-11-30 12.740231 16.036585 20.486100 27.199353 37.613513 54.270834 85.891626
2025-12-07 11.963692 15.303419 19.927938 27.133360 38.796577 58.541952 99.278670
2025-12-14 11.262349 14.604645 19.334980 26.914957 39.658545 62.388709 113.193137
2025-12-21 10.962196 14.441093 19.491352 27.856855 42.581181 70.613857 140.233135
2025-12-28 10.409660 13.863878 18.968106 27.624621 43.377273 74.869518 159.869135
2026-01-04 9.965723 13.413142 18.595770 27.591210 44.515669 80.094419 185.148789
2026-01-11 9.640429 13.115969 18.434364 27.891464 46.327263 87.276111 221.411841
2026-01-18 9.225829 12.664440 18.004627 27.696214 47.173803 92.592340 256.514974
2026-01-25 8.832788 12.223854 17.561886 27.434245 47.852178 97.751807 296.548894
2026-02-01 8.512975 11.879302 17.252328 27.385745 48.985825 104.522991 352.312656
2026-02-08 8.193970 11.517504 16.887356 27.192677 49.766815 110.608762 414.201976
2026-02-15 7.896949 11.174726 16.530940 26.979094 50.467298 116.747595 488.193856
2026-02-22 7.620642 10.851132 16.186105 26.753750 51.105576 122.978777 577.663086
2026-03-01 7.389589 10.589976 15.933340 26.688678 52.131126 130.978262 705.622343
2026-03-08 7.152031 10.306424 15.623019 26.475135 52.747991 137.850076 850.221789
2026-03-15 7.093880 10.319107 15.843440 27.394616 56.519164 158.737902 1292.621248
2026-03-22 6.879161 10.056161 15.544287 27.167856 57.126385 167.103108 1625.780189
2026-03-29 6.703446 9.852099 15.342062 27.135214 58.286813 178.690193 2186.072269